Real GDP (q/q, ann.)
+3.0%
CPI (y/y)
3.6%
Unemployment
4.1%
Debt / GDP
+1.4 pp
Real GDP (trend)
+2.2%
CPI (y/y)
2.6%
Unemployment
4.3%
Debt / GDP
+3.8 pp
IS–LM (Short-run)
Tax cuts shift IS → right; rate hold keeps LM flat in the short run.
AD–AS (Long-run)
Near-term output lifts; price level higher; LR depends on productivity.
Distributional Effects (Short-run)
Bar width ≈ relative change vs baseline.
Distributional Effects (Long-run)
LR includes deficit dynamics and crowd-out/crowd-in channels.
Risks (Short-run)
- Price pressure from demand; mitigated by rate stability.
- Revenue shortfall widens near-term deficit.
Risks (Long-run)
- Debt sustainability depends on r–g and future consolidation.
- Investment response tied to supply-side reforms.
IS–LM (Short-run)
Fiscal push vs tighter money → muted growth; inflation contained.
Distribution
Risks
AD–AS (Short-run)
Output up modestly; price pressure damped by hikes.
Distribution
Risks
IS–LM (Short-run)
Fiscal drag vs easing → disinflation, softer growth.
Risks
Baseline
Trend growth, stable prices, neutral policy.
Trade/Industry Mix
Import prices up; targeted sectors supported; CPI sensitivity.
Distribution
Supply Shock + Demand Support
Stagflationary pressure; stimulus cushions output.
Risks
Balance-Sheet + Capex
Near-term demand + potential-growth lift from infra productivity.